Joe Carson | The Carson Report | Economist Blog

top of page

After over 40 years researching in the field of economics, with experience on the buy and sell-side of Wall Street, government, and private industry and mostly focusing on financial markets and policy analysis, I have decided to share my research and opinion on The Carson Report. Please feel free to email me if you have any questions or want to discuss any of my research or opinions.

Joe

jcarson21@aol.com

Bank Credit Grew Again In February.

Why Does the Economy Remain Hot? ---Fed Policy Started In A Big Hole And Is Still Too Easy

The Payback From QE---Fed Hikes Not Lifting Long Term Borrowing Costs To Break Inflation Cycle

Has The Fed Misjudged The "Continuous" Effects of QE?

Remnants of QE Is Supporting Bank Lending

Labor Costs May Be Rising Faster Than Many Think

The Fed's "War" With Investors

Growth in Nominal GDP & Bank Credit Says Monetary Policy Remains Too Easy

Hey Fed---Bank Lending Still Accelerating

Household Balance Sheet: Which Asset Class Is Most Vulnerable to Fed Tightening & Recession?

Consumer Services Inflation Cycle Matters The Most: Fed Tightening Cycle Far From Over

Inverted Yield Curve Not A Sufficient Condition For Recession-Credit Growth & Rate Levels Matter To

Goods News on Inflation Comes With a Cost---Shrinking Profit Margins

Record Profit Margins Suggest It's Been A "Pain-Free" Tightening Cycle For Companies

The Big Risk in 2023 For the Fed & Investors---Slowdown in Inflation Proves To Be "Transitory"

Uh-Oh! Credit Boom Accelerates---How Does The Fed Stop An Inflation Cycle With Easy Credit?

We Were All Wrong: The Starting Point Was Zero

Historical "Bullish" Period For Stocks Runs Up Against Fed Tightening Cycle: Will History Repeat?

Uh-Oh! Credit Boom Accelerates---How Does The Fed Stop An Inflation Cycle With Easy Credit?

Near-Record High-Profit Margins Indicate the Fed Is Not Winning the Inflation Battle

Inflation Watch: Owners Rent Is Up, But So Is Everything Else; Fed Staff Predicted Rent Surge

Investors Should Be Cautious Of A Policy Pivot: Volcker Showed Quick Policy Pivots Don't End Well

Inflation Cycles Are Not Static; They Rotate and Broaden

Inflation Cycle Shifts Towards Services, Making It More Difficult For The Fed To Reverse

No Recession, But BEA Has A Data Problem As The Gap Between GDI & GDP Hits $1 Trillion

Equity Investors: All Bad News Is Not The Same, Nor Does All Bad News Trigger A Friendly Fed

Investors Bet The "Bear" Is Over, But the "Bear Cycle" of Lower Inflation & Less Profits Is Not

July CPI Had Good & Bad News: Headline Inflation Drops But Core Inflation Remains High

ISM's Prices Paid Indexes and Bank Credit Says the Fed Fight Against Inflation Is Far From Over

No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output

WSJ Article Is Misleading: Household & Payroll Data Are In Sync, Labor Market Remains Robust

June CPI: Wages Costs More Important Than Commodities & No Sign of Product Discounts

The "Income" Consequences of the Fed's Inflation Fight: The Main Reason Recession Risks Are High

Fed's Goes Big & Late: Hard Landing Coming

Peak Inflation Is Hollow: It Provides No Context To Reduction in Speed or Duration of Cycle

Average Hourly Earnings Posted Their Largest Monthly Gain of 2022 in May

bottom of page