Joe Carson | Economist | The Carson Report Blog

Something Seems Off! Q4 GDP at 5%, Despite No Growth in Manufacturing, Housing & Few New Jobs

If you rely on the GDP estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's team, the US economy is performing the improbable by growing well beyond its potential, despite two key sectors experiencing no growth and minimal new job creation. The Atlanta Fed's GDPnow estimate suggests that Q4 GDP growth is at an annualized rate of 5.1%. However, that estimate of output growth is at odds with the weak growth picture depicted by data from manufacturing, housing, and employment. T

Joe Carson

2 hours ago

Earth to Fed! Nominal GDP Surges Over 8% in Q3

Nominal GDP increased at an annual rate of 8.2% in Q3, after a 6% annualized rise in the previous quarter. These consecutive strong increases in nominal economic activity are the largest since 2022. Monetary policy affects nominal spending, and the Nominal GDP/Fed Funds rule suggests that the current monetary policy stance is "far too easy". GDP price Index +3.7%. Earth to Fed!

Joe Carson

Dec 23, 2025

Fed Chair "Words" Matter

During this week's press conference, Fed Chair Powell inserted himself and the Fed into the discussion about payroll job measurement. Powell stated that there is a "systemic overcount" of payrolls, estimating it to be around 60,000 per month, according to Fed staff. It is uncertain why Powell questioned the accuracy of payroll data since the Fed's "employment mandate" focuses on the unemployment rate, which is measured by the household employment survey rather than the payrol

Joe Carson

Dec 12, 2025

Consumer Affordability---Prices & Expenses Are What Count

Consumer affordability is a widely discussed topic, but it's not enough to simply look at consumer prices. Affordability encompasses the prices or costs of essential and discretionary items, which are mainly captured in the consumer price index, along with mandatory expenses that standard price measures don't cover. When considered together, the costs of purchasing consumer items and meeting essential obligations indicate that "affordability" has become a big problem for a l

Joe Carson

Dec 8, 2025

Monetary Policy Mistakes: Labor Market Weakness Is Not A Monetary Issue.

Monetary policy mistakes are often self-inflicted. Sometimes, policymakers cling to an official policy for too long, necessitating a swift and sharp reversal to mitigate economic harm. At other times, they try to address or reduce economic imbalances that aren't caused by monetary policy. That's when policy mistakes happen, and it seems that policymakers are about to make another mistake soon if they react to recent job data. Policymakers are tasked with an employment and inf

Joe Carson

Nov 30, 2025

Will AI Eliminate Service Jobs Similar to How Globalization Affected Mfg. Jobs?

Digital workers might soon replace a significant portion of the labor force, but there are other factors to consider before assuming the economy will thrive as a result. Consider how globalization hollowed manufacturing workforce and the consequences for numerous communities. The potential job losses in the service sector from digital workers could be multiples of globalization. Digital workers do not contribute to taxes, buy food, purchase vehicles, travel, or engage in othe

Joe Carson

Nov 7, 2025

Something Seems Off! Q4 GDP at 5%, Despite No Growth in Manufacturing, Housing & Few New Jobs

Earth to Fed! Nominal GDP Surges Over 8% in Q3

Fed Chair "Words" Matter

Consumer Affordability---Prices & Expenses Are What Count

Monetary Policy Mistakes: Labor Market Weakness Is Not A Monetary Issue.

Will AI Eliminate Service Jobs Similar to How Globalization Affected Mfg. Jobs?

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