Uh-Oh--- Corporate Tax Payments Send Warning About Q3 Operating Profits

Uh-Oh! Corporate tax payments to the US Treasury are significantly lower compared to the same period last year. US companies make estimated tax payments on the 15th of the last month of each quarter. Up to September 15, corporate tax payments for the current fiscal year have reached $453 billion, compared to $535 billion the previous year. I anticipate several billion in tax payments will be added to the Treasury on the 16th, but the overall total will still be much lower than last year's levels. Tax payments often serve as a good indicator of operating profits, and the tax payments for September 2025 suggest there could be several negative earnings surprises when companies report their Q3 earnings.