Joe CarsonMar 8, 2024Strong Jobs & Hours Data---Raw Data Showed A Gain of 1.1 Million WorkersFebruary's jobs data should eliminate any mention of faulty seasonal factors, making the employment picture look brighter than it is. In...
Joe CarsonFeb 25, 2024Sharp Decline In Leading Economic Indicators: A Recession Forecast Or A "False" Signal? Is the sharp decline in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators over the past year a forecast of recession or a "false" signal? The...
Joe CarsonFeb 16, 2024Consumer Inflation---Lot of Inflation Under The Hood or Hidden From Seasonal FactorsSeveral analysts downplayed the larger-than-expected rise in core consumer prices (0.4%), citing it as the "January effect." Several...
Joe CarsonFeb 14, 2024Has Transparency and Communication In Monetary Policy Gone Too Far?Policymakers believe open communication and transparency about future policy changes are critical to the Fed's price-targeting framework....
Joe CarsonJan 25, 2024Economy Grew 3.1% in 2023; GDP Rule Bests Inverted Yield Curve Recession Forecast